2006 PRIORITY CONGRESSIONAL RACES

by LARRY LITVAK

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This page shows what I consider to be the most competitive 2006 races for Senate and House seats as of September 1, 2006. This list is based on information from sources such as the Cook Political Report and Congressional Quarterly. It includes six Senate seats, all of which are currently held by Republicans and which either party has a real chance of winning. The list includes sixteen House seats, all of which are held by Republicans and which are also toss-ups. The Democrats need to gain a net of six seats to take control of the Senate and fifteen net seats to take control of the House.
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UPDATE 10/18/06
I have added four additional House races and one additional Senate race to my previous list. These additions can be found at the bottom of the page.
(The following candidate descriptions from various sources.)


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Image of Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill

MO-Sen (Map)

MISSOURI SENATE
Since eking out a narrow victory in 2002, Republican Senator Jim Talent has spent several uneventful years in office and will now face popular state auditor Claire McCaskill in one of the most competitive races of the 2006 cycle.
On the issues, Talent has proven to be out of touch with the people of Missouri. Talent was criticized this year for flip-flopping on the issue of stem cell research before finally coming out against Missouri’s stem cell ballot initiative. Not only does McCaskill fully support this initiative, but so do 62% of the voters in the state according to a recent St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll.
The minimum wage will also be on the ballot in November, an issue which Talent recently voted against. McCaskill stands with the hard-working Missourians and with raising the minimum wage, something that has been overlooked by Congress for 10 years.

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Image of Jon Tester

Jon Tester

MT-Sen (Map)

MONTANA SENATE
Montana’s political climate is ripe for change. Republican Senator Conrad Burns nearly lost reelection six years ago to now Governor Brian Schweitzer when Bush carried the state by more than 20 percent. Now Burns is one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. The Democratic nominee is state senate President Jon Tester. Tester has been a leader in fighting for affordable and accessible healthcare, has been a farmer all his life and understands agriculture, and is working hard to restore Montana values in the United States Senate.

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Image of Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown

OH-Sen (Map)

OHIO SENATE
Ohio Senator Mike DeWine, the Republican, is seeking a third term in what may be the toughest atmosphere for Republicans anywhere in the nation. His state has been rocked by scandals implicating its Republican governor, Bob Taft, and one of its veteran Republican members of Congress, Bob Ney (who decided in August not to run for re-election). Mr. DeWine’s Democratic challenger is Representative Sherrod Brown
DeWine’s recent smear ad using false images of the 9/11 attacks to tout his record on homeland security backfired. DeWine pulled the ad after he discovered the images were doctored and some of the claims were factually inaccurate. Brown continues to poll strong against DeWine.

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Image of Bob Casey

Bob Casey

PA-Sen (Map)

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE
After spending most of this cycle following the conservative agenda, voting with Bush 98% of the time, Republican Senator Rick Santorum is trying to move to the center and make up ground in the election year. The good performance of Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania in recent presidential elections, coupled with how out of touch Santorum is with the citizens of PA makes this race a major Democratic target in 2006. Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey, son of late Governor Robert P. Casey, is challenging Santorum.
Casey won state-wide office three times. In his most recent election in 2004 for state treasurer, Casey has won more votes than any other candidate for any state or federal office in the history of PA.

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Image of Sheldon Whitehouse

Sheldon Whitehouse

RI-Sen (Map)

RHODE ISLAND SENATE
Sheldon Whitehouse, the former state Attorney General, is running for U.S. Senate in Rhode Island, challenging Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee.
U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee has lost ground among Republicans after pulling out a win in a tough primary challenge from Cranston millionaire,Mayor Stephen Laffey.

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Image of Harold Ford, Jr.

Harold Ford, Jr.

TN-Sen (Map)

TENNESSEE SENATE
Republican nominee Bob Corker will face Democratic Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, in the general election to replace Senator Bill Frist who announced his retirement last year.
Ford has aired multiple ads since the beginning of his campaign, about jobs, the economy, port management, and more recently about the price of oil. To help alleviate some of the pain at the pumps, Ford is in favor of drilling in the Alaskan wilderness only if the standards of CAFE are raised, which increase fuel efficiency by setting a mile per gallon criterion. Ford also believes that there should be no more tax breaks for oil companies, but rather for the drivers who need it.

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AZ-08 General Election Fund

AZ-08 (Map)

Open Republican Seat. This seat is currently held by Jim Kolbe®, who is retiring. Contributions to this fund will be sent to the Democratic nominee upon his or her selection.
Kerry got 46.4% of vote in 2004. The Democratic Primary election is September 12.

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Image of Ed Perlmutter

Ed Perlmutter

CO-07 (Map)

COLORADO 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Colorado 7 is one of the top pick-up opportunities for Democrats this cycle. While the Republican won this seat by a mere 121 votes in 2002, this district went narrowly for Kerry and Gore, and it is evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. The first Democrat elected in nearly 30 years to the 20th state Senate District, Perlmutter engineered the first Senate majority for Democrats in nearly 40 years. In the State Senate, Ed was recognized for his leadership in carrying legislation promoting renewable energy, consumer protection and responsible growth. Perlmutter’s moderate views and depth of experience as an elected official will draw a sharp contrast to the right wing Republican nominee in this election.

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Image of Joe Courtney

Joe Courtney

CT-02 (Map)

CONNECTICUT 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
With a Democratic performance of almost 60%, this is one of the bluest districts held by a Republican Representative in the country. Courtney served as the popular State Representative for much of the district from 1987-1994. Courtney held Simmons to 54% of the vote in 2002, a year where Republicans made gains across the nation.

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Image of Tammy Duckworth

Tammy Duckworth

IL-06 (Map)

ILLINOIS 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Duckworth is a political neophyte who became involved in politics as a result of her losing both her legs while a helicopter pilot in Iraq. She was one of the military veterans recruited by the party to try to counter Republican advantages on national security. The seat is open with Repulican congressman Henry Hyde is retiring after 16 terms. Bush won 53% of the vote in 2004.

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Image of Joe Donnelly

Joe Donnelly

IN-02 (Map)

iNDIANA 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Republican Chris Chocola beat Democrat Joe Donnelly in 2004 by 54% to 45%, but recent polls show Donnelly with a lead. Donnelly is taking the lessons he learned last cycle to run an aggressive campaign against incumbent Chris Chocola. Redistricting has altered the boundary lines, but historically this area has sent Democrats to Congress. Voters have a favorable image of Donnelly from his long standing roots in the district as a leader on education, a local attorney, and a small business owner. When these traits are coupled with Donnelly’s prior experience as a candidate against Chocola,iit becomes clear that Donnelly has what it takes to pull out a victory in November.

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Image of Brad Ellsworth

Brad Ellsworth

IN-08 (Map)

INDIANA 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
This is a socially conservative district where the Republican has been re-elected 5 times since 1994. The Democratic candidate, In 1999, Ellsworth was elected Sheriff of Vanderburgh County in his first campaign for public office. Vanderburgh is the largest county in the district and Ellsworth is very popular. There have been many close races in this congressional district.

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Image of Baron Hill

Baron Hill

IN-09 (Map)

INDIANA 9TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
First elected to Congress in 1998, Baron Hill lost his seat last cycle by a mere 1,500 votes. He grew up in Seymour, the small town of John Mellencamp’s song “Small Town,” In the House, Hill was a Blue Dog, and he is currently working for a law firm in Indianapolis.

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Image of Bruce Braley

Bruce Braley

IA-01 (Map)

IOWA 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Bruce Braley has proven to be an extremely strong candidate in this open-seat race, and has hit the ground running following an impressive victory in a hard-fought primary. This is a top Democratic performing district, where Gore defeated Bush by seven points and Kerry won with 52.8%.

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Image of Ken Lucas

Ken Lucas

KY-04 (Map)

KENTUCKY 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
In 1998 Ken Lucas was elected to represent Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District in Congress. After serving three terms, Rep. Lucas decided not to run for re-election. But, as widespread public corruption continues to emanate from the Capitol, Lucas couldn’t sit idly by, and decided to challenge freshman Rep. Geoff Davis, whom he defeated in 2002.

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Image of Patricia Madrid

Patricia Madrid

NM-01 (Map)

NEW MEXICO 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Madrid became New Mexico’s first female Attorney General in 1998. In 2002, Madrid was re-elected to a 2nd term, receiving the highest number of votes of any statewide elected official.

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NY-24 General Election Fund

NY-24 (Map)

The retirement of Congressman Sherwood Boehlert makes New York’s 24th Congressional District a great pick-up opportunity. The leading contender in the Democratic primary is Michael Arcuri. Over the past twelve years, Michael Arcuri has been a pro-active District Attorney, keeping his promise to be a leader against crime and to expand crime prevention programs. Meanwhile, his opponent, State Senator Ray Meier, is even more conservative than Boehlert. With New York trending Democratic, Bush’s approval at all-time low, and several popular candidates at the top of the ticket, Democrats have a perfect storm brewing to win this seat.
The New York primary is September 12.

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Image of Mike Arcuri

Mike Arcuri

NY-24 (Map)

NEW YORK 24TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
The retirement of Republican Congressman Sherwood Boehlert makes New York’s 24th Congressional District a great pick-up opportunity. Over the past twelve years, Michael Arcuri has been a pro-active District Attorney, keeping his promise to be a leader against crime and to expand crime prevention programs. Meanwhile, his opponent, State Senator Ray Meier, is even more conservative than Boehlert. The District went narrowly for Bush in 2004. With New York trending Democratic, Bush’s approval at all-time low, and several popular candidates at the top of the ticket, Democrats have a perfect storm brewing to win this seat.

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Image of Heath Shuler

Heath Shuler

NC-11 (Map)

NORTH CAROLINA 11TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Former NFL quarterback for the Tennessee Volunteers and Washington Redskins. After retirement from the NFL, Shuler created the Heath Shuler Real Estate firm, which has grown to 200 agents. Shuler founded the Heath Shuler Foundation, a leadership program for middle school and high school students.

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Image of John Cranley

John Cranley

OH-01 (Map)

OHIO 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
John Cranley is a well-established local elected official with solid Democratic Party credentials and serves as a visiting professor for the University of Cincinnati Law School and co-director of the Urban Justice Institute and the Ohio Innocence Project. Hewas the top vote getter in his 2005 Cincinnati City Council re-election campaign giving him strong momentum going into his Congressional bid against Chabot.
Cranley has gained substantial experience since his 2000 run against Chabot, when at the age of 26 he lost only 53% to 45%, despite being outspent $1,099,555 to $465,561.

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Image of Zachary Space

Zachary Space

OH-18 (Map)

OHIO 18TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
With Republican Bob Ney bowing out of the race late amidst corruption scandals, attorney Zack Space has a perfect opening to provide an alternative to the district’s frustrated voters. Space has served as Dover City Law Director since 2000.

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Image of Lois Murphy

Lois Murphy

PA-06 (Map)

PENNSYLVANIA 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Lois Murphy, the 2004 candidate for this seat, is an attorney and an adjunct professor at Temple University’s School of Law. Despite starting off in 2004 as a relative unknown who trailed far behind in early polling, she raised over $1.94 million and came within 6,400 votes of winning this seat, the closest of any challenger. Previously, she has served as president of NARAL-PA and also headed up Gov. Rendell’s 2002 campaign in Montgomery County.

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Image of Chris Carney

Chris Carney

PA-10 (Map)

PENNSYLVANIA 10TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
For the last decade, Chris Carney has served as a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Navy Reserve and following the horrific attacks on September 11th, served as a senior advisor on intelligence and counterterrorism at the Pentagon. He is also a professor at Penn State University in Scranton.
Don Sherwood had no major party competition in the past two elections, and it has become apparent that this free ride has made him complacent. Sherwood has been severely damaged by well-publicized personal scandals and allegations of corruption related to payments to his business from federal earmarks. Sherwood spent over $350,000 to win a primary election in which voters were so fed-up with him they nearly nominated an opponent who didn’t even spend the $5,000 necessary to file with the FEC.

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Image of Phil Kellam

Phil Kellam

VA-02 (Map)

VIRGINIA 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
This traditionally Republican district has the chance to turn blue in November thanks to the entrance of VA Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam into the race. Kellam has proven his ability to collect Republican votes by winning three terms as the only Democrat elected in Virginia Beach, which comprises 75% of the 2nd district. Thelma Drake’s approval ratings have collapsed due to potential base closures in a district with a heavy military presence and a 98 percent rubberstamp voting record with Bush. Kellam’s strengths as a candidate, and the fact that Governor Tim Kaine carried the 2nd district, have taken this race from a safe Republican seat to becoming a serious pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

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FL-22 General Election Fund

FL-22 (Map)

This seat is currently held by Clay Shaw®, who narrowly escaped in 2004 when challenger Jim Stork (D) dropped out of the race for reasons of health. Contributions to this fund will be sent to the Democratic nominee upon his or her selection. The Democratic Primary is September 5.

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Image of Patty Wetterling

Patty Wetterling

MN-06 (Map)

MINNESOTA 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Following her son Jacob’s abduction at age 11 in 1989, Patty Wetterling became one of the leading child safety advocates in the nation. Her work has helped states pass tough laws to track sex offenders and has contributed to the enactment of the national Amber Alert system. Her tireless efforts on behalf of children resonate with this suburban district much more closely than the extreme right-wing record of her opponent. Wetterling is on the verge of picking off this seat and taking us one step closer to a Democratic majority.
This race is the catfight of the (still young) century. In the right corner we have Michelle Bachmann, who opposes all recognition for gay relationships, supports creationism being taught in the public schools, opposes the minimum wage, and does not want to rule out a nuclear attack on Iran. In the left corner, we have Patty Wetterling, who has been an advocate for stopping child abuse and abduction after her (still missing) son was abducted in 1989. She opposes the war in Iraq and wants to bring the troops home now. This seat is the one Rep. Mark Kennedy is leaving behind as he is trying to get a promotion to the Senate. The district tends to vote Republican, but Wetterling is better known in it from the 2004 House race here that she narrowly lost to Kennedy. Tossup.

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Image of Jack Davis

Jack Davis

NY-26 (Map)

NEW YORK 26TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Jack Davis founded the I Squared R Element Company Inc. which he still owns and manages. The company is located in Akron, New York and manufactures silicon carbide heating elements which are used in high temperature electric furnaces. It is now the only US owned plant making this product. He employs 75 western New Yorkers who earn on average wage of $25 per hour. His business is not for sale, is not outsourcing jobs, and is not importing heating elements. Eventually, he hopes to transfer ownership to his children.
In the 2004 election, Jack ran for Congress in New York State’s 26th District. His number one issue was Save Jobs, Farms and Industries. He spent $1.2 million of his own money in the campaign. Starting his campaign with virtually no name recognition, Jack garnered an impressive 44% of the vote against a well-known incumbent.Reynolds has been in Congress since 1998 and would probably have glided to an easy victory in 2006 had he not been ensnared in the Foley sex scandal. He is chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, and was informed about Foley’s sexually explicit e-mails in early 2006 by the page’s congressman, presumably with the intention that Reynolds have a discrete man-to-man chat with Foley about the latter’s future employment plans. Instead, Reynolds passed the hot potato to Speaker Dennis Hastert, who did nothing and later claimed he first heard about the scandal in September. This means that either Reynolds or Hastert is lying.

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Image of Joseph Sestak Jr

Joseph Sestak Jr

PA-07 (Map)

PENNSYLVANIA 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Retired Vice-Admiral Joe Sestak has proven to be one of our strongest candidates. The district is the highest Kerry performing district held by a Republican in Pennsylvania, and election statistics show that continues to trend more Democratic. Weldon has drawn negative attention recently due to his misguided obsession with finding WMDs in Iraq and allegations that he’s used his position to enrich his own family. Add Sestak’s financial success to the fact that Weldon has grown increasingly unpopular in the district, and all signs point to a major Democratic success.

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Image of James Webb

James Webb

VA-Sen (Map)

VIRGINIA SENATE
Senator George Allen’s campaign is on shaky ground due to his ties to George Bush and his own foot-in-mouth disease.
Last November, Virginians elected Democrat Tim Kaine to the governor’s mansion by a 6 point margin. After this strong victory, in which Senator Allen campaigned heavily for Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, many are giving Virginia a second look for a possible Democratic pick up in 2006. The Democratic Senate nominee is former Secretary of the Navy James Webb.
The Washington Post recently endorsed Webb, saying ”
[Webb] - former Navy secretary, former assistant defense secretary, former Marine Corps officer and former Republican - is admirably independent-minded. He was prescient in warning, back in 2002, that the war in Iraq risked stranding the United States in a long-term occupation without an exit strategy. An intelligent man with a record of integrity, he has resisted the packaging of political consultants, which can only be a good thing. Those assets, as well as his deep familiarity with military and national security affairs, offer the promise that he would make an able, if unorthodox, U.S. senator. And the fact that his youngest son is deployed as a marine in Iraq gives him a perspective that is rare in today’s Congress.”

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Total: 00,000